Another day, another record. 

Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Transportation Average traded at record highs on Tuesday after revised GDP data showed the economy grew faster than expected in Q3.

Based on one of the oldest theories of technical analysis, this is significant. Dow Theory holds that a bull market in the transportation sector confirms bullishness for the rest of the market.

And the Dow Transports aren’t just in a bull market, they’re soaring even compared to the S&P 500. While the broad market index is up almost 12 percent year-to-date, the transports have enjoyed an astounding return of 24 percent.

“It is suggesting that equities have further to rise,” said Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co. “When the Dow Jones Transports outperformed, it tends to be in the early to middle innings of a secular advance. So in terms of a secular outlook for stocks, we’ve got further to go in the years ahead.”

 

View photo

.

To prove his point, Wald looked at an 85-year relative chart of the Dow Transports versus the S&P 500, using theoretical prices for periods before the S&P 500 was established. When the chart rises, it indicates that transports are outperforming.

Wald then overlaid that chart with one of the S&P 500 itself. Doing so, he noticed a pattern: When the relative chart of the Dow Transports had huge moves up over the span of a decade or two, the S&P 500 made subsequent upward moves lasting decades, as well.

 “Transports outperformed from 1938 to 1953,” said Wald. “The secular advance in the S&P 500 continued until 1966. Another big transports run was from 1973 to 1989. That S&P 500 secular advance continued until 2000. So when you add it up, I think the advance is intact, and I think transports have further to run, as well.”

Here’s where it gets really interesting: The relative price of the Dow transports just made peaks not seen since the mid-1930s.

“What’s actually completed is an 80-year, head-and-shoulders bottoming pattern,” said Wald. “There is a lot of momentum behind transports. I think they continue to lead stocks higher.”

However, the fundamentals suggest there’s more at play than just a booming economy, according to Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global.

What’s driving transports higher is a decrease in gas prices, she said. That “leads to better transport performance, but not necessarily purely because of sales. In fact, people have been very slow to spend this time around. The propensity to save has been high in this particular recovery.”

Though Sanchez acknowledges the economy is in a recovery, she believes it’s tepid.

“I’m still in equities,” added Sanchez, a CNBC contributor. “I’m still recommending equities to my clients. However, I am tempering that with the fact that partially, there is nowhere else to be.”

Premièrement le cac 40 est en hausse de façon regulière historiquement

Le crash ne viennent pas perturber cette tendance à très long terme .

Donc on peut supposer qu'en jouant la hausse on peut être gagnant a 100 % à LT .

En étudiant plus attentivement on observe que lors des crash le cac baisse très vite provoquant un gros mouvement en très peu de temps .

On voit clairement que pour faire autant de points à la hausse il faut une durée beaucoup plus longue .

On part donc du postulat que le cac monte à long terme mais qu'il subit des crash violents et courts .

Sa probalité est donc à la hausse, mais il connaît des cycles dans la régularité de la hausse, ces mouvements sont très intéressants car ils permettent de se replacer à la hausse et d'engranger rapidement 

des points. En lissant la courbe du cac on pourrait rendre le placement plus attractif et surtout pouvoir sortir sans pertes à tout moment.

Il convient donc d'identifier ces périodes de crash afin soit de se couvrir soit d'en profiter pour engranger plus de points .